Scoring Methodology
A transparent framework for evaluating ACO performance using publicly available CMS data.
Why We Built This
Medicare's ACO programs — the Shared Savings Program (MSSP) and ACO REACH — together include over 600 ACOs managing care for millions of beneficiaries. CMS publishes detailed performance data annually — but it arrives as raw spreadsheets, difficult to compare across years and programs.
We built this dashboard to give the health payment policy community a unique, freely available lens into ACO performance. Our composite scoring framework goes beyond simple financial rankings to incorporate quality outcomes and risk adjustment integrity — offering a more complete picture of which ACOs are genuinely delivering value.
Every metric, threshold, and weighting decision is documented here. We believe transparency in methodology is as important as transparency in data. If you disagree with our approach, we welcome the conversation.
Composite Scoring Framework
Each ACO receives a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated as a weighted average of five dimensions. ACOs are ranked within their cohort — MSSP Basic Track ACOs are compared only to other Basic Track ACOs, Enhanced Track ACOs only to their peers, and ACO REACH Global and Professional are scored separately. This reflects fundamentally different risk arrangements: MSSP Basic Track ACOs share in savings but face limited downside risk, Enhanced Track ACOs operate under full two-sided risk, and REACH ACOs operate under capitated total cost of care arrangements with risk corridors.
Financial Performance
35% weightWhat it measures: Whether the ACO is reducing Medicare spending relative to its benchmark, and whether that trajectory is improving over time.
Why it matters: The fundamental promise of the MSSP program is that organized, coordinated care can reduce unnecessary spending while maintaining quality. Financial performance is the most direct measure of that promise.
Components
- 1.Gross Savings Rate — Total savings (or losses) as a percentage of the benchmark. Ranges from -20% to +20%, normalized to a 0-100 scale.
- 2.3-Year Savings Trend — Average year-over-year change in gross savings rate. Rewards ACOs with improving trajectories, even if current-year savings are modest.
- 3.Per-Capita Expenditure Efficiency — Ratio of actual per-capita spending to benchmark per-capita. Lower ratios indicate more efficient care delivery.
Scoring method: Each component is normalized to 0-100 and equally weighted within the dimension. The resulting score is then percentile-ranked within the ACO's cohort — meaning an ACO's financial score reflects how it compares to its peers, not an absolute standard.
Data source: CMS MSSP Public Use File (Performance Year Financial Results) and ACO REACH Financial and Quality Results PUF, published annually on data.cms.gov.
Quality Performance
20% weightWhat it measures: The ACO's CMS-calculated quality score and whether quality is improving over time.
Why it matters: Cost savings without quality maintenance is just rationing. The quality dimension ensures that ACOs achieving financial performance aren't doing so at the expense of patient outcomes.
Components
- 1.Current Year Quality Score (70%) — The ACO's CMS quality score, normalized to a consistent 0-100 scale across all performance years.
- 2.Quality Trend (30%) — Change in quality score over available years, looking back up to 4 years to bridge reporting gaps.
Normalization Note
CMS changed the quality score format across years: PY2013 and PY2015-2017 used a 0-1 decimal scale, while PY2014 and PY2018 onward used a 0-100 scale. PY2020-2021 had COVID reporting waivers with no quality scores. Our normalization converts all years to a consistent 0-100 scale and excludes waiver years from trend calculations.
Scoring method: Percentile-ranked within cohort.
Data source: CMS MSSP Public Use File (quality score field) and ACO REACH PUF (QUAL_SCR), published annually on data.cms.gov.
Risk Adjustment Integrity
20% weightWhat it measures: Whether the ACO's risk score growth is consistent with expected trends, or whether it shows patterns that may indicate aggressive diagnostic coding.
Why it matters: Risk adjustment is the mechanism by which CMS accounts for how sick an ACO's patient population is. Higher risk scores increase the benchmark, making it easier to show savings. When risk scores grow faster than underlying health status changes can explain, it raises questions about coding intensity — a well-documented concern across Medicare payment models.
This is the novel analytical dimension of our framework. While MedPAC, GAO, and OIG have all documented risk score growth as a systemic concern, there is no publicly available tool that evaluates individual ACO risk score trajectories against expected baselines.
How It Works
We compare each ACO's risk score growth to a Fee-for-Service (FFS) baseline growth rate of approximately 1.0% per year — a conservative midpoint derived from CMS-HCC normalization trends. Growth that significantly exceeds this baseline triggers proportional score reductions.
Indicators
- 1.Single-Year Excess Growth — Year-over-year risk score growth rate minus the FFS baseline. Large single-year jumps receive the heaviest penalty.
- 2.Cumulative 3-Year Excess — Total growth over three years minus expected FFS growth. Captures sustained trends that single-year analysis may miss.
- 3.Growth Acceleration — Whether risk score growth is accelerating (second derivative). Accelerating growth is more concerning than stable elevated growth.
Program-Specific Calibration
Thresholds differ by program because the financial incentive to upcode varies significantly:
MSSP
- Single-year threshold: 2.0 pp above FFS
- 3-year cumulative: 5.0 pp
Wider thresholds reflect that shared savings dilute the financial reward from higher risk scores (50-75% sharing rate).
ACO REACH / LEAD
- Single-year threshold: 1.5 pp above FFS
- 3-year cumulative: 3.5 pp
Tighter thresholds reflect that capitation creates immediate, undiluted financial reward from higher risk scores.
Scoring method: Unlike financial and quality scores, risk integrity uses absolute thresholds rather than percentile ranking. A score of 100 means no risk score concern was detected. Penalties are applied proportionally to how far above thresholds an ACO falls. This is intentional — we want an objective risk assessment, not a relative ranking where even responsible ACOs receive low scores simply because they rank below peers.
Data source: CMS MSSP Public Use File (risk score fields by enrollment type) and ACO REACH PUF (normalized and ratebook risk scores), published annually on data.cms.gov.
Organizational Integrity
10% weightComing Soon
This dimension is under development. When complete, it will evaluate provider network stability, OIG exclusion screening, beneficiary assignment volatility, and organizational indicators that predict sustained performance.
Currently scored at a neutral 50.0 for all ACOs.
Context & Equity
10% weightComing Soon
This dimension is under development. When complete, it will account for the community health burden in an ACO's service area — including chronic disease prevalence (CDC PLACES), social vulnerability (SVI), health professional shortage areas, and dual-eligible concentration. ACOs serving harder populations deserve appropriate context for their financial results.
Currently scored at a neutral 50.0 for all ACOs.
Data Sources & Transparency
All data used in this dashboard comes from publicly available CMS datasets. We do not use proprietary data, claims-level information, or non-public sources.
Primary Sources
- MSSP Performance Year Public Use Files — Financial results, quality scores, risk scores by enrollment type, benchmark and expenditure data (PY2013-PY2024)
- MSSP County-Level Beneficiary Data — ACO geographic footprint and beneficiary assignment by county
- ACO REACH Financial and Quality Results — Financial performance, quality scores, risk scores, and benchmark data for REACH Global and Professional arrangements (PY2022-PY2023). REACH uses capitated benchmarks with discount factors and claims-based quality measures (ACR, UAMCC, DAH).
- ACO REACH Aligned Beneficiary Data — County-level beneficiary alignment for REACH ACOs, used to derive geographic footprints (PY2022-PY2023)
Our scoring code, methodology, and analytical approach are documented in full here. If you identify an error or want to suggest an improvement, we welcome the conversation.